After reading the 2009 search advertising outlook from JP Morgan (thanks Graywolf) I was disappointed to see no references to organic search and the forecasting thereof. In fact they blatantly cover the click through rate of paid search (22%) without even thinking where the other 78% of clicks are coming from.

It’s not a secret that Google sees 80% of its clicks through natural search whereas paid search enjoys 80% of the budget assigned to search in the UK. What fails me is this message seems to be falling on deaf ears. If I were an FD (and by qualification I could be although my life expectancy would drop by 50 years :) ) I would be demanding a comparison of all marketing methods, stripping back on the non-accountable methods to ensure I get maximum ROI for my pound. Surely right now is the time to ask the difficult questions?

Organic search is not only typically a cheaper option per visits with trust benefits included but it’s the long term option paving the way for more revenue when the market turns. They say build in a recession and reap in a boom and SEO IMHO is the ideal activity.

Why do I say this? (When MediaVision offers both services :) )

Well, paid search click cost may dip through a recession but what about when the market turns? Well the click cost will soar and a lot of businesses will get back into the cycle of paying too much for their click.

Why would SEO be different?

Well SEO is a cumulative activity that will bear fruit during AND after a recession and if properly deployed will create a barrier to entry for competition when the market turns. It allows a business to thrive through the recession due to decreased lead acquisition costs and come out the other end far stronger than before.

Why is there not a mass panic shift to organic?

Well probably because of the mindset, the budgets that are moving into search are moving from TV, newspaper and so on where the culture is pay for coverage so paid search makes more sense. These are competitive areas too (when last did you see a publication with only 1 major player in a sector covered). The shift to an accountable pay per visit model seems like a jump so far into bliss that any options further seem too risky to be true. The industry is probably not helped by the immense amount of spammy bottom feeders but that is a story for another day.

When could it happen?

Well if we use the dot com bubble as an example then hype created only changed the consumer behaviour years later then predicted. That said this is a more educated market so possibly a lot quicker than 5 years. I’m guessing we will see the percentages equal in 2 to 3 years and that certainly will be a better situation for quality agencies. That’s my guess anyway, what’s yours?

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